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Tentu saja, tren dapat berubah kapan saja, tetapi Anda dapat menggunakan indikator teknis untuk mencoba menentukan pada titik mana tren kemungkinan akan berubah arah.
Jenis tren
Semua pasar keuangan bergerak dalam dua arah yang berbeda: naik atau turun. Saat pasar tidak dalam tren, mereka bergerak ke samping, di mana pertarungan antara penjual dan pembeli berlanjut.
Pasar tumbuh, tren naik atau pasar bullish
Pasar yang berkembang, juga dikenal sebagai tren naik atau pasar bullish, menunjukkan rangkaian harga tertinggi dan terendah yang lebih tinggi. Dengan kata lain, setiap bottom (support) lebih tinggi dari yang sebelumnya.
Jatuh pasar, downtrend atau bearish
Pasar yang jatuh, juga dikenal sebagai tren turun atau pasar beruang, adalah saat pasar menciptakan titik terendah dan tertinggi yang lebih rendah.
Bagaimana menentukan tren
Dalam analisis teknikal, diyakini bahwa selama tren naik, titik tertinggi yang lebih tinggi terbentuk, karena pembeli adalah mayoritas dan mendorong harga lebih tinggi, dan titik terendah juga lebih tinggi karena pembeli terus membeli instrumen keuangan jika terjadi penurunan harga. Inilah yang terjadi selama tren turun: titik terendah terbentuk semakin rendah, karena dominasi penjual menurunkan harga. Oleh karena itu, cara termudah untuk menentukan tren adalah dengan menghubungkan dua titik tertinggi atau dua titik terendah yang Anda tentukan di grafik dengan garis lurus (garis tren metatrader 5 pc download).
Namun, pasar tidak selalu berdagang dalam tren yang jelas 24 jam sehari, 7 hari seminggu. Ada periode stabilisasi di setiap pasar, yang juga dikenal sebagai tren sideways. Pasar bergerak sideways saat berada pada titik keragu-raguan, dan pembeli atau penjual menemui jalan buntu. Pembeli dan penjual menguji satu sama lain, tetapi tidak ada kesepakatan murni. Di sini, sebagian besar pelanggan memilih antara dua strategi potensial: perdagangan jarak jauh atau menunggu terobosan.
Seperti yang Anda lihat pada contoh di bawah ini, EURGBP diperdagangkan dalam tren turun, setelah itu tren turun berakhir dan pasar bergerak sideways.
Salah satu poin terpenting dalam menentukan tren adalah menentukan interval waktu untuk analisis dan operasi. Biasanya, saat Anda menganalisis tren jangka panjang, Anda menggunakan interval waktu jangka panjang untuk waktu yang singkat. Namun, untuk tujuan intraday, kerangka waktu yang lebih pendek sangat berharga. Investor besar dapat membuka posisi dalam mata uang atau saham perusahaan untuk jangka waktu beberapa bulan atau tahun. Namun bagi trader retail, grafik mingguan sudah bisa digunakan sebagai analisa trading forex jangka panjang.
Menurut definisi, analisis tren didasarkan pada perubahan harga historis. Ini berarti bahwa investor melihat ke masa lalu untuk memprediksi masa depan. Mengetahui arah tren membantu dalam memilih dan menahan posisi, namun perlu diingat bahwa pasar cenderung bergerak dalam gelombang. Gelombang ini disebut gelombang impuls ketika bergerak ke arah tren dan gelombang korektif ketika berubah arah. Dengan menghitung wave atau koreksi tiap wave, Anda bisa mencoba mengantisipasi munculnya peluang investasi.
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